SWODY3
SPC AC 050725
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0125 AM CST MON JAN 05 2009
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
DYNAMIC LARGE-SCALE TROUGH INITIALLY CENTERED ALONG THE MS VALLEY
WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW ANCHORED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
AND ERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. AS THIS OCCURS...TROUGH WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY-TILTED WHILE LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE ERN SEABOARD.
MEANWHILE IN THE W...THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
PACIFIC NW COAST.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NEWD FROM THE
UPPER OH VALLEY THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH SECONDARY
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING WEDNESDAY NIGHT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ERN PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND
GA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY SEWD THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
...ERN CAROLINAS INTO THE FL PENINSULA...
DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ARE
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WEDNESDAY WITHIN
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF QUITE POOR LAPSE
RATES ON ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF MIDLEVEL JET STREAK WILL RESULT IN
ENVIRONMENT BECOMING ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE. NONETHELESS...
FRONTAL FORCING COMBINED WITH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE PRESENCE OF THE STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELDS INDICATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY STRONG WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAPID
STORM MOTIONS. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED BY THE WEAK LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT MARGINAL
INSTABILITY.
..MEAD.. 01/05/2009
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