Saturday, January 17, 2009

DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 170641
SWODY3
SPC AC 170640

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2009

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN FCST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
DAY-3...WITH SLOW EWD SHIFT OF WRN CONUS RIDGE TOWARD CENTRAL/NRN
ROCKIES. SERIES OF SHORTWAVES -- DIGGING SSEWD FROM NRN AND CENTRAL
CANADA -- WILL REINFORCE ERN CONUS TROUGHING...AND WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW OVER GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS BEHIND SFC
COLD FRONT DESCRIBED IN DAY-2 OUTLOOK.

AS THIS FRONT PROCEEDS SEWD THROUGH FL PENINSULA DURING FIRST HALF
OF PERIOD...PRECURSORY/DIABATIC HEATING MAY OFFSET WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPMENT OF NARROW BAND OF
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION. STG UPPER FLOW WILL SPREAD OVER CENTRAL/SRN
FL BUT MAY NOT BE AVAILABLE TO ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING BENEATH.
FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WARM LAYER ALOFT -- AROUND 500 MB -- MAY
LIMIT AND PERHAPS PRECLUDE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL DEPTH OF BUOYANCY FOR
THUNDER.

..EDWARDS.. 01/17/2009

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