Sunday, January 18, 2009

DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 180631
SWODY3
SPC AC 180630

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR PATTERN -- CHARACTERIZED BY STG MEAN RIDGING OVER WRN
CONUS AND TROUGHING IN E -- IS FCST TO SHIFT EWD SOMEWHAT AND BEGIN
TO WEAKEN DAY-3. SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT OVER NWRN NW
TERRITORIES -- WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND MS VALLEY TO
SERN CONUS THROUGH DAY-2. THIS FEATURE THEN SHOULD PIVOT EWD ACROSS
SRN APPALACHIANS...NERN GULF...NRN FL AND CAROLINAS BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE LATE THIS PERIOD AS STG/POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH.
ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE REINFORCED BY SECONDARY FRONTAL
SURGE LATE DAY-2 INTO EARLY DAY-3 ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN FL...WITH
RESULTANT BAROCLINIC ZONE CLEARING SERN FL AND KEYS BY 21/00Z.
DEEP-CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS S FL WILL BE MINIMIZED BY
COMBINATION OF LOW BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE...WEAK LAPSE RATES
ALOFT...AND PREFRONTAL WLYS LIMITING CONVERGENCE.

..EDWARDS.. 01/18/2009

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