SWOD48
SPC AC 150930
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 AM CST THU JAN 15 2009
VALID 181200Z - 231200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT CURRENT HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WITH
WRN U.S. RIDGE AND BROAD ERN U.S UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
ABOUT JAN 20 (DAY 6) WHEN A TRANSITION TO A LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE REGIME WILL COMMENCE. SEVERE THREAT THOUGH THIS PERIOD
WILL REMAIN LOW.
RICHER MOISTURE MAY BEGIN RETURNING NWD THROUGH TX BY DAY 8 AHEAD
PROGRESSIVE SRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DEPICTED IN BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS. HOWEVER...MREF SPREADS AND MODEL UNCERTAINTY ARE TOO LARGE THIS
FAR IN ADVANCE TO ASCERTAIN ANY SEVERE THREAT.
..DIAL.. 01/15/2009
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