SWOD48
SPC AC 240858
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2009
VALID 271200Z - 011200Z
...DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD EXISTS IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE WITH
THE ECMWF SHOWING THE BEST RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH NEXT WEEK/S
UPR FLOW REGIME. PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE THE EJECTION
OF A SRN STREAM IMPULSE OUT OF THE DESERT SW INTO THE PLNS AND
MIDWEST/GRTLKS REGION IN THE TUE-THU TIME FRAME. SLY LLVL FLOW WILL
ADVECT GULF MOISTURE NWD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...AND MODEST
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE AS THE WAVE EJECTS NEWD OUT OF
THE PLNS TO THE GRTLKS ON THU. THIS WILL RESULT INTO ONE OR MORE
BANDS OF TSTMS ACCOMPANYING THE ASSOCD CDFNT WITH ISOLD SVR PSBL
OVER PARTS OF THE SRN STATES. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT PRIMARY LARGE
SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY PASS N OF THE MORE ROBUST THETA-E...A
WIDESPREAD ENHANCED SVR WEATHER THREAT IS NOT LIKELY.
..RACY.. 01/24/2009
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