Saturday, January 3, 2009

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0003

ACUS11 KWNS 031333
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031332
LAZ000-MSZ000-031500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0003
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0732 AM CST SAT JAN 03 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN TX AND SRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 031332Z - 031500Z

A WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SRN LA BY MID MORNING.

WV IMAGERY INDICATED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF HOU
AT 13Z. THE CURRENT MOTION IS ENEWD AT 40 KT...WHICH PLACES THE
SYSTEM IN CENTRAL LA NEAR ESF AROUND 18Z. DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S AND MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG...DPVA APPEARS TO BE
SPREADING EAST OF SERN TX AND FAR SWRN LA...WITH LESSENING CHANCES
FOR STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. STORM PROBABILITIES APPEAR HIGHER
ACROSS SRN LA...AS STORMS ABOUT 65 SE OF LCH...SHIFT NEWD INTO SRN
LA AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS THUS FAR HAVE
NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY STRONG...THEY SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AS
THEY BECOME ROOTED INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL NOT
BE PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ONLY AT 30-40 KT.
HOWEVER...THIS SHEAR AND THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ALTHOUGH WIND DAMAGE/BRIEF TORNADO IS
POSSIBLE...THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AND 7.5 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WOULD BE MOST SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE HAIL.

..IMY.. 01/03/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 29058928 29089140 29729325 31089275 31039181 30938983
29058928

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