Saturday, January 17, 2009

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0041

ACUS11 KWNS 171136
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171135
MIZ000-WIZ000-171530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0041
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0535 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NE WI...UPPER AND LOWER MI

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 171135Z - 171530Z

SNOW WILL INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS UPPER MI...NE
WI AND LOWER MI THIS MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACH 1 INCH PER
HOUR IN SOME LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY LATE THIS MORNING AS LIFT AND
MOISTURE BECOME MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE MCD AREA.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ORIENTED NNE TO SSW ACROSS ERN MN. THE LEADING EDGE OF ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED IN NRN WI AND THIS
WILL SPREAD SEWD ACROSS ERN WI INTO NRN LOWER MI OVER THE NEXT 2 TO
4 HOURS. ALTHOUGH SFC DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...DEWPOINTS MAY RISE SLOWLY DUE TO SLY FLOW AHEAD
OF SFC LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. IN ADDITION...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE MCD AREA INCREASE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAINLY IN
THE 800 TO 700 MB LAYER AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW.
SNOWFALL RATES COULD APPROACH 1 INCH PER HOUR IN THE MORE INTENSE
BANDS ESPECIALLY LATE THIS MORNING AS THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE AREA.

..BROYLES.. 01/17/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...

LAT...LON 42958491 43298637 44268783 45418923 46308920 46758831
46668717 45728497 44568389 42958491

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