SWODY1
SPC AC 191919
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 PM CST THU FEB 19 2009
VALID 192000Z - 201200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...FL PENINSULA...
WEAK OR WEAKENING INITIAL SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED THE LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES HAS SETTLED INTO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA. ONLY A VERY SLOW SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION APPEARS LIKELY
UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH THE NEXT DEEPER LOW-LEVEL
COLD SURGE SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF AND SOUTH
ATLANTIC COAST STATES. WEAKENING LIFT/SHEAR NEAR THE REMNANT
BOUNDARY HAS REDUCED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO NEAR NEGLIGIBLE LEVELS
...GIVEN VERY LIMITED DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT.
HOWEVER...A WEAK AREA OF ENHANCED MID/UPPER FORCING EVIDENT IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY COULD STILL SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM AS IT SPREADS EAST NORTHEAST OF THE TAMPA AREA INTO THE
VERO BEACH/MELBOURNE AREA BY 21-22Z. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS MAY BE
WHERE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS FOCUSED JUST OFFSHORE.
..KERR.. 02/19/2009
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