Sunday, February 15, 2009

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 150552
SWODY1
SPC AC 150550

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2009

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE NRN CA
COAST TODAY AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET REMAINS NEAR THE CNTRL COAST
OF CA. MODEL FORECASTS GRADUALLY INCREASE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST TODAY. THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT
BRINGING THE STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INLAND THIS EVENING WHICH
SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL BANDS OF PRECIPITATION. MODERATE
RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT ALONG THE CA COAST. DUE TO WEAK
INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN NCNTRL
FL ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY IS ALSO
FORECAST TO BE WEAK OVER FL AND THIS SHOULD NOT SUPPORT A SEVERE
THREAT TODAY OR TONIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 02/15/2009

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