SWODY1
SPC AC 160538
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2009
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SRN CA...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST OF NRN CA WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD
TODAY. PLENTIFUL LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW AND COLD
AIR ALOFT IN THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM THE CNTRL CA COAST AND SRN
SACRAMENTO VALLEY SSEWD TO THE LA BASIN. LIFT SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED IN
LA BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDS
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND MOVES OVER SRN CA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE LA BASIN THIS AFTERNOON SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL JET. THIS ALONG WITH THE COLD AIR
ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A HAIL THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHEN SFC TEMPS WILL
BE A BIT WARMER. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS MOVE A 40 TO 50 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET SSEWD FROM THE CNTRL CA COAST SEWD INTO THE LA BASIN
TODAY. THIS ALONG WITH OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS FROM THE SURROUNDING
MOUNTAIN RANGES IN THE LA BASIN WILL LOCALLY ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
SUPPORTING A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WITH LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS
THAT INITIATE LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
..BROYLES.. 02/16/2009
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