SWODY1
SPC AC 280030
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0630 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009
VALID 280100Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES...
...GULF STATES...
AN EXPANSIVE MCS CONTINUES ITS MIGRATION ESEWD ACROSS THE NRN HALF
OF AL WITH TRAILING REGENERATIVE UPDRAFTS AND ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FEEDING THIS COMPLEX EXTENDING NWWD ACROSS NRN MS INTO
SERN AR. EFFECTIVE SFC BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED TO A POSITION SOUTH OF
CSG...ARCING TO NEAR TOI THEN NWWD TO SOUTH OF GLH ALONG THE AR/LA
BORDER. ADDITIONALLY...SEVERAL LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE
NOTED ALONG FORWARD FLANK OF THIS MCS NEAR SFC BOUNDARY OVER CNTRL
AL. LATEST THINKING IS LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG/NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS AR INTO
NRN MS...PER RECENT INCREASE IN ACTIVITY AHEAD OF DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH. 00Z SOUNDING FROM LZK STRONGLY SUGGESTS ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THIS REGION WITH STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 300-500J/KG. WITH TIME A
WEAK SFC LOW SHOULD EVOLVE A BIT SOUTH ALONG THE WRN PORTION OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER NRN LA THEN TRACK EWD INTO CNTRL MS AND AL DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOIST INFLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING LLJ
OVER MS/AL STRONGLY SUPPORT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/NORTH OF QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE GREATEST THREAT WITH COOL SECTOR
CONVECTION...HOWEVER ANY SUPERCELL STRUCTURES THAT CAN MANAGE TO
ROOT NEAR THE BOUNDARY WILL POSE AN INCREASED RISK FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES.
..DARROW.. 02/28/2009
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