Saturday, February 28, 2009

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 010044
SWODY1
SPC AC 010041

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2009

VALID 010100Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE FL PANHANDLE/NRN FL
NEWD ACROSS SRN SC/COASTAL NC...

...SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING ACROSS THE SERN U.S. ATTM...AHEAD OF A
POTENT/DEEPENING LOW ALOFT DIGGING SEWD INTO THE SERN STATES ATTM.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD ACROSS GA/FL/THE CAROLINAS. MEANWHILE...EXPECT
STEADIER/STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE SPREADING NEWD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION...WHILE SNOW
AFFECTS PARTS OF THE MID SOUTH/TN VALLEY REGION ON THE NRN PERIPHERY
OF THE STORM SYSTEM.

...FL PANHANDLE/NRN FL NEWD INTO SRN SC/FAR SERN NC...
STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM IN SEVERAL
BANDS/CLUSTERS EXTENDING FROM THE FL PANHANDLE/SERN AL NEWD ACROSS
GA INTO SC.

WHILE THE WARM-SECTOR REMAINS ONLY MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE AT BEST AWAY
FROM THE FL PANHANDLE...STRONG UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THE POTENT STORM
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST THREATS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
FL PANHANDLE AND INTO SWRN GA WHERE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS
EVIDENT...AND THEN LATER MAY INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS.

WHERE INSTABILITY REMAINS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF
VIGOROUS CONVECTION...DEGREE OF SHEAR WILL AID IN STORM
LONGEVITY/ORGANIZATION. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 03/01/2009

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