SWODY1
SPC AC 071948
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 PM CST SAT FEB 07 2009
VALID 072000Z - 081200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SRN CA...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST FROM SRN CA. AN AXIS OF MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR IS EVIDENT NORTHEAST OF THE LOW FROM THE SRN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
EXTENDING SSEWD INTO THE COASTAL RANGES OF SRN CA. SOME LIMITED SFC
HEATING HAS OCCURRED ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AND RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS
WEAK INSTABILITY IS PRESENT WITH SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 250 TO 500
J/KG RANGE. THIS ALONG WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING AS
FAR NNWWD AS FRESNO AND STOCKTON. HOWEVER...THE GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIST ACROSS THE SRN CA COASTAL
RANGES AND MOJAVE DESERT WHERE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS STRONG ON
THE NWRN SIDE OF A 80 TO 95 KT MID-LEVEL JET. THE STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL
HAIL THREAT ACROSS SRN CA AND FAR SW AZ LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
..BROYLES.. 02/07/2009
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