SWODY1
SPC AC 151259
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2009
VALID 151300Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPR LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE NRN CA CST THROUGH MON
AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND PROGRESSES E TO THE HI PLNS.
AMPLIFICATION/PROGRESSION OF RIDGE WILL SERVE...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY
...TO CURTAIL RECENT TRAIN OF LOW AMPLITUDE SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCES
AFFECTING TX AND THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LAST SUCH
IMPULSE...NOW OVER AR/LA PER SATELLITE...APPEARS RESPONSIBLE FOR
RECENT FLARE-UP OF STORMS INVOF SUBTLE SFC WAVE JUST OFF THE SRN LA
CST. THE IMPULSE AND SFC WAVE SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY E TODAY...
WITH THE SFC WAVE REACHING NW FL BY EVE. THE WAVE SHOULD REDEVELOP
OFF THE NE FL CST TONIGHT/EARLY MON AS AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
NOW OVER THE CNTRL PLNS OVERTAKES IT.
...NRN/CNTRL FL...
TSTMS NOW OVER THE N CNTRL GULF SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP ESE THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY AS UPLIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED SFC WAVE AND UPR
IMPULSE CONTINUE EWD. THE STORMS SHOULD APPROACH NW PARTS OF THE FL
PENINSULA BY EARLY TO MID AFTN. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT OVER
LAND LIKELY WILL REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF STORMS AS /1/
MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK.../2/ CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING...
AND /3/ LOW LVL MOISTURE RECOVERY AND HEATING WILL BE MINIMAL. BUT
SATELLITE PW DATA SHOW THAT FAIRLY MOISTURE-RICH AIR /PWS OF 1.5 TO
2.0 INCHES/ IS PRESENT OVER THE NE GULF. GIVEN 40-45 KT DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY SHEAR ON SRN FRINGE OF FAST FLOW ALOFT...SETUP
SUGGESTS THAT A FEW CLUSTERS/SHORT BANDS OF STRONG STORMS CROSSING
THE NERN GULF COULD AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE WRN FL CST FROM NEAR TPA TO
CTY. ANY SVR THREAT...HOWEVER...SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN ISOLD DMGG
WIND GUST OR TWO...AND THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR GREAT ENOUGH TO
INTRODUCE LOW PROBABILITIES ATTM. OVERLAND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH
AS SFC WAVE REFORMS OFF THE NE FL CST THIS EVE.
...CA...
SATELLITE DATA SHOW A SERIES OF SPEED MAXIMA ALONG ROUGHLY 135W THAT
WILL KEEP UPR LOW MORE OR LESS STATIONARY OFF THE NRN CA CST TODAY.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN SLY LLJ ALONG THE CNTRL CA CST. COLDER AIR ALOFT
WITH UPR SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE UNTIL EARLY MON WHEN IMPULSE
NOW NEAR 35N/135W APPROACHES THE VBG AREA. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD
BE ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL BANDS OF PRECIPITATION...WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE STORMS. DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY...SVR THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED.
..CORFIDI.. 02/15/2009
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