Tuesday, February 24, 2009

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 250035
SWODY1
SPC AC 250032

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0632 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2009

VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NRN PLAINS...

WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL TRANSLATE EWD ALONG THE SD/NEB BORDER
OVERNIGHT AS MT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE DAKOTAS. SUSTAINED
LIFT/MOISTENING ALONG/WITHIN POST FRONTAL ZONE IS ENHANCING MID
LEVEL CONVECTION ACROSS SERN MT WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
RECENTLY DEVELOPED. THIS ZONE OF FAVORED ASCENT/CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD ACROSS SD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE
WARM ADVECTION MAY ENHANCE THE PROSPECTS FOR A FEW MORE
THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PARCELS LIFTED NEAR 700MB
ARE SUFFICIENTLY BUOYANT FOR UPRIGHT CONVECTION CAPABLE OF LIGHTNING
DISCHARGE...HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD PROVE TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK.

..DARROW.. 02/25/2009

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