Friday, February 6, 2009

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 060545
SWODY2
SPC AC 060544

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 PM CST THU FEB 05 2009

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LESS AMPLIFIED SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
EVOLVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION. IN THE WAKE OF THE EASTERN
TROUGH...LOW-LEVEL DRYING STILL APPEARS TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS
OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. BUT...WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION HAS BECOME EVIDENT FROM THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE INTO EASTERN TEXAS...WITHIN A DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RETREATING SURFACE RIDGE. FURTHER SLOW
MOISTENING AND INLAND ADVECTION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY/
SATURDAY NIGHT...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND ALONG A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS FRONTAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL ACCOMPANY A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE PROGRESSING WITHIN
THE NORTHERN STREAM...ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...AS AN UPSTREAM
SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW/TROUGH SLOWLY MIGRATES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES.

...SOUTHWESTERN U.S...
STRONGEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...ASSOCIATED WITH A SIGNIFICANT
IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH...ARE PROGGED TO
DEVELOP SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...TOWARD THE BAJA
SPUR...BEFORE DEVELOPING EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWESTERN MEXICAN
PLATEAU LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. AND...DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIMITED DUE TO THE LACK OF LOWER LATITUDE PACIFIC MOISTURE
INFLOW...ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE POST-COLD FRONTAL CLOUD COVER.
BUT...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES NORTH/EAST
OF A BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER COULD STILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLATEAU...MAINLY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

...EAST OF THE ROCKIES...
MODELS SUGGEST SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS MOISTENING OCCURS WITHIN AN ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION
REGIME NORTH OF THE DEVELOPING FRONTAL ZONE...FROM PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS. HOWEVER...EVEN ACROSS THIS
REGION...MID-LEVEL INHIBITION IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEARS TOO
STRONG FOR AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

..KERR.. 02/06/2009

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