SWODY2
SPC AC 121729
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CST THU FEB 12 2009
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS
THROUGH FRIDAY. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS VICINITY TO THE
UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT. FARTHER WEST...WESTERN STATES UPPER LOW
WILL PIVOT SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE ORE/NORTHERN CA COAST...WITH
ASSOCIATED POLAR JET SPREADING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN CA AND THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. FARTHER SOUTH...SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM IS FORECAST
TO CONSIDERABLY STRENGTHEN/SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO...AND TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY SATURDAY.
...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GULF COAST STATES...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION
ON FRIDAY BENEATH WEAK BUT STEADY LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
30-40 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AIDED LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME. SCATTERED TSTMS WILL MAINLY BE
CONCENTRATED ALONG THE NORTHEAST-ADVANCING MARINE-TYPE WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. WITH THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...QUESTIONS EXIST REGARDING TSTM
COVERAGE/VIGOR IN THE AMBIENT WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE
LOW/COLD FRONT CROSSING EASTERN OK AND ARKLATEX. STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 50-60 KT AND VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL BE MORE THAN
ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING TSTMS. HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY
QUESTION FOR AN APPRECIABLE/WELL-ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK REVOLVES
AROUND MODEST TOTAL BUOYANCY /SBCAPE UP TO 500-1000 J PER KG/...AS
WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR CAPPING AND ONLY MODEST/AMBIGUOUS FORCING
ACROSS THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR. WHILE A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE WARRANTED AT THIS TIME...THE STRONGER TSTMS MAY BE
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO ON FRIDAY.
..GUYER.. 02/12/2009
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