SWOD48
SPC AC 200935
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2009
VALID 231200Z - 281200Z
...DISCUSSION...
UPPER AIR PATTERN FCST TO DEAMPLIFY OVER MOST OF CONUS AFTER
DAY-4/23RD-24TH...AS DEPARTURE OF EASTERN TROUGH LEAVES BEHIND
RELATIVELY LOW-THETAE/CONTINENTAL AIR MASS IN LOW LEVELS. MARINE
MODIFICATION OVER GULF WILL BE CRITICAL TO SVR POTENTIAL WITH
SUBSEQUENT TRAIN OF SHORTWAVES EXPECTED IN MORE FLATTENED/ZONAL
PATTERN THROUGH REST OF PERIOD. SOME PART OF NERN PACIFIC UPPER LOW
IS FCST TO EJECT EWD AS OPEN WAVE ACROSS PORTIONS W-CENTRAL CONUS TO
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING DAYS 6-7/25TH-27TH TIME FRAME...BUT WITH
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE AMONG ECMWF/UKMET/SPECTRAL
MODELS AND MREF MEMBERS. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN TO SUPPORT SVR
SHOULD OCCUR OVER SRN PLAINS/MS DELTA BY DAY-6/25TH-26TH...BUT
CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK IS PRECLUDED BY UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
STRENGTH/TIMING OF PERTURBATION ALOFT AND RESULTANT RESPONSE OF LOW
LEVEL MASS FIELDS.
..EDWARDS.. 02/20/2009
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