SWOD48
SPC AC 260942
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 AM CST THU FEB 26 2009
VALID 011200Z - 061200Z
...DISCUSSION...
COMPACT/INTENSE MID-UPPER LOW AND ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FCST
TO EJECT EWD FROM SERN CONUS DAY-4/1ST-2ND...WITH STG COLD FRONT
SWEEPING OFFSHORE FL EARLY THAT DAY. IN ITS WAKE...STG LOW LEVEL
RIDGING AND CONTINENTAL/POLAR TRAJECTORIES WILL DOMINATE GULF FOR
2-3 DAYS...WHILE PRONOUNCED UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS EWD ACROSS SRN
PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW TIME FOR MARINE AIR
MASS MODIFICATION IN SUPPORT OF POTENTIALLY FAVORABLE RETURN FLOW
INTO PORTIONS SRN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL PLAINS DURING DAYS
7-8/4TH-6TH...CORRESPONDING TO WARM SECTOR OF STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL/LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS REGIME. WHILE MREF MEAN...SPECTRAL
AND ECMWF GENERALLY AGREE ON WRN CONUS MEAN TROUGHING BY THIS TIME
FRAME...LOW LEVEL MASS AND THERMAL RESPONSES INFLUENCING SVR THREAT
WILL BE DEPENDENT STRONGLY ON SHORTWAVE TIMING/AMPLITUDE DETAILS
THAT STILL VARY CONSIDERABLY AMONG MREF MEMBERS AND OPERATIONAL
MODELS.
..EDWARDS.. 02/26/2009
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