SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062010
CAZ000-062245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0067
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 PM CST FRI FEB 06 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN CA...INCLUDING L.A. BASIN AND CHANNEL
ISLANDS.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 062010Z - 062245Z
CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER PACIFIC WATERS -- RELATED TO MID/UPPER
PERTURBATION APCHG SRN CA COAST -- IS OCCURRING ON N END OF
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDING WELL SSWWD ACROSS
PACIFIC. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT THROUGH
REMAINDER AFTERNOON...LEADING TO ISOLATED TSTMS AS REGIME SHIFTS EWD
ACROSS COASTAL SANTA BARBARA...VENTURA...L.A. AND ORANGE COUNTIES.
DEEPER SHOWERS OR TSTMS MAY PRODUCE WATERSPOUTS MOVING TOWARD
SHORE...AND ISOLATED HAIL ALSO IS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONAL/BRIEF
TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP JUST INLAND AS WELL. ATTM...SVR
THREAT APPEARS TOO MRGL/CONDITIONAL FOR WW.
MAIN CONVECTIVE REGIME IS FCST TO SHIFT EWD/SEWD FROM SBA AREA
ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS DURING NEXT 3-4 HOURS. STG MIDLEVEL WINDS
WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN FAVORABLE SHEAR THROUGH CLOUD-BEARING
LAYER...ATOP REGIME OF WEAK CINH AND SFC DEW POINTS 50S F. PRIMARY
FACTORS OTHERWISE INFLUENCING SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE...
1. MRGL AMBIENT LOW LEVEL WINDS...WHICH WILL RESTRICT HODOGRAPH
SIZE...ALTHOUGH THIS EFFECT MAY BE OFFSET LOCALLY BY OROGRAPHICALLY
FORCED BACKING. PRECONVECTIVE VANDENBERG VWP INDICATED SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL SHEAR TO SUPPORT SMALL/LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS...AND WEAK
CYCLONIC SHEAR HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN A FEW CELLS OFFSHORE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY.
2. LACK OF MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY. PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER --
REINFORCED BY UPSLOPE ADVECTION OF COOL/MOIST MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER
-- WILL MIX AWAY ONLY SLOWLY AND IN ERRATIC FRAGMENTS. MODIFIED RUC
SOUNDINGS INDICATE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S F WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO BOOST
MLCAPES TO 300-400 J/KG...OCCASIONALLY REACHING UPWARD INTO ICING
LAYERS SUITABLE FOR LIGHTNING.
..EDWARDS.. 02/06/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGX...LOX...
LAT...LON 34442001 34471990 34461972 34461958 34391933 34291881
34281830 34181789 33791774 33541777 32811833 32791845
32951859 33031860 33031858 33291830 33331848 33461864
33211941 33271956 34001884 34081906 34111916 34251927
34101945 33951965 33941993 33882013 34002016 34182004
34442001
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