MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0082

ACUS11 KWNS 101818
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101817
OKZ000-TXZ000-102015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0082
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL OK SWWD INTO WRN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 101817Z - 102015Z

SUPERCELL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS FROM S
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SWWD INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL TX. RESULTING SEVERE
THREAT -- INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES -- WILL REQUIRE
TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES SPREADING NWD ATTM...WITH LOW 60S
DEWPOINTS NOW N OF THE RED RIVER INTO S CENTRAL OK. FROM THIS AREA
SWD...DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY HAS PUSHED
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S...YIELDING MIXED-LAYER CAPE
IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES. AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM CONTINUES APPROACHING FROM THE SRN ROCKIES...ADDITIONAL
DESTABILIZATION AND INCREASED LARGE-SCALE UVV SUGGESTS THAT STORM
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG A DEVELOPING DRYLINE...NW EXTENDING
FROM NEAR LTS SSWWD INTO WRN PORTIONS OF N CENTRAL TX.

ALONG WITH DEPICTING A DEEPENING/ESSENTIALLY-UNCAPPED BOUNDARY
LAYER...18Z FORT WORTH RAOB REVEALS AN INCREASE IN THE WIND FIELD
WITH HEIGHT. AS FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER SYSTEM...SHEAR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY-FAVORABLE FOR
UPDRAFT ROTATION. AS A RESULT...STORMS INITIATING INVOF THE DRYLINE
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME RAPIDLY SUPERCELLULAR. ONCE THIS
OCCURS...THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST
-- ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE WITH
TIME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS AN INCREASINGLY-FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS AN EXPANSION IN STORM COVERAGE WITH TIME.

..GOSS.. 02/10/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 30960062 31520062 32899988 34059882 35679773 35999718
35989641 35609546 34679538 32509685 31589792 30859923
30960062

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