Wednesday, February 18, 2009

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0123

ACUS11 KWNS 181923
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181922
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-182015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0123
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0122 PM CST WED FEB 18 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF S-CENTRAL LA AND SRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 181922Z - 182015Z

SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 21Z.

AT 19Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GRADUALLY DEEPENING CU
ALONG LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE ORIENTED FROM NEAR 20 MI WSW POE TO
45 MI WSW JAN. RESIDUAL HIGH CIRRUS SHIELD HAS IMPEDED DIABATIC
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OVER AREAS FARTHER S AND E...BUT AREAS
IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND NEAR CONFLUENCE ZONE HAVE CLEARED. LATEST
KLCH SINGLE SITE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS DEVELOPING TSTMS OVER
RAPIDES/AVOYELLES PARISHES IN LA AND LIBERTY COUNTY TX.
18Z LCH/JAN/LIX ALL SHOW STRONG NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP FLOW
PROFILES /70 KTS AT 500MB/...WHICH WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SPLITTING SUPERCELLS ONCE SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS
DEVELOP. STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED
OVER MS/SERN LA /AOB 200 MS/S2 EFFECTIVE SRH/ BEFORE WEAKENING AS
STRONGER BELT OF 850MB FLOW MOVES AWAY FROM REGION THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD TORNADO
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF S-CENTRAL MS COMPARED TO AREAS W
OVER SWRN LA. NONETHELESS...EXPECTED SCTD TSTM COVERAGE WILL POSE A
RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...DMGG WINDS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO OR
TWO.

..SMITH.. 02/18/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 30579356 30969303 32049070 32138924 31638830 31218837
30708868 30229011 30109158 29879307 29969351 30169369
30579356

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