MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0141

ACUS11 KWNS 222300
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222300
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-230400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0141
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0500 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...MOST OF ME...NRN/CNTRL NH

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 222300Z - 230400Z

BANDED HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH RATES LIKELY
INCREASING TO BETWEEN 1 AND 2 IN/HR. THROUGH 06Z...THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD BE CENTERED FROM AROUND LCI TO NEAR HUL.

22Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 1005 MB LOW ALONG THE RI
COAST. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS HAVE STRENGTHENED DOWNSTREAM OF THE
CYCLONE THROUGH THE DAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AS UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVE TROUGH /JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/ ROTATES NEWD. LATEST MODEL FORECASTS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT
WITH DEEPENING THE CYCLONE TO AROUND 990 MB AT 06Z AS IT REACHES
COASTAL ME. LOWER-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL INTENSIFY AND IN
CONJUNCTION WITH SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS/CYCLONIC
VORTICITY ADVECTION...RESULT IN STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS
NRN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE SWATH OF ONGOING
MODERATE RAIN...WITH OBSERVED PRECIPITATION RATES OF 0.10 TO 0.20
IN/HR...OVER COASTAL SRN NEW ENGLAND SPREADING/DEVELOPING N/NEWD OF
THE QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE WET-BULB FREEZING LINE DRAPED FROM SERN
NH ACROSS SRN ME. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 IN/HR SHOULD BECOME
COMMON WITHIN ABOUT A 70 SM CORRIDOR N OF THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION
LINE.

..GRAMS.. 02/22/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...

LAT...LON 46386837 46336780 45626767 45046785 44636864 44326975
43497095 43087139 43327178 43787192 44627151 45427054
45946955 46386837

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