MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0142

ACUS11 KWNS 230515
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230514
MEZ000-NHZ000-230915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0142
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1114 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...MOST OF ME

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 230514Z - 230915Z

HEAVY SNOW...WITH RATES AS HIGH AS 1-3 IN/HR...WILL BE LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF ME DURING THE MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT INTO ERN-NERN ME AFTER 09Z.

A POTENT NEG TILT S/W TROUGH MOVING NE ACROSS THE CAPE COD REGION AT
04Z...IS FORECAST TO ROTATE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK/NOVA SCOTIA BY
12-15Z/MON. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT
/EVIDENT BY HOURLY PRESSURE FALLS OF 5 MB OFF THE COAST OF ME/ WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE...FAVORING DEEPLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT OVER
ME. 00Z UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A 30-40 KT 850 MB JET
IMPINGING UPON A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT PRESENT OVER NEW
ENGLAND...FOCUSING INTENSE LOW LEVEL WAA AND FRONTOGENESIS ALONG A
LINE FROM LCI TO 50S OF HUL...WHERE REGIONAL REFLECTIVITY AT 05Z
DEPICTS A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.

RUC AND SREF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL REORIENT
FROM A EPM TO AUG POSITION AT 06Z...TO MORE OF A ENE POSITION
IMPINGING UPON HUL BY 12Z. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL SHIFT IN
STRONGEST MESOSCALE UVV/S FROM THE SRN HALF OF ME /AND A
CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN SNOWFALL INTENSITY/ TOWARD ERN-NERN ME BY
09-12Z...WHERE 1-3 IN/HR RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z.

..GARNER.. 02/23/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

LAT...LON 44477088 45377020 46636904 47426819 47066768 45846765
45416738 45036749 44646866 44166987 43487065 43437100
43927100 44477088

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