Thursday, February 26, 2009

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0147

ACUS11 KWNS 261258
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261257
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-261430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0147
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 AM CST THU FEB 26 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL MO...W-CNTRL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 261257Z - 261430Z

POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS OVER PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL MO PERHAPS EXTENDING INTO
W-CNTRL IL. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
CORES...FACILITATING THE NEED TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.

RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEPENING 1003 MB CYCLONE NEAR DDC
AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW INTENSIFYING STORMS ALONG W-E ORIENTED
BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR OJC TO 20 MI W JEF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTS A MID LEVEL IMPULSE...WITHIN LARGE SCALE TROUGH...MOVING
ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL KS AND THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EWD INTO MO THIS
MORNING. ACCORDINGLY...EXPECT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITHIN WAA REGIME.

12Z SGF RAOB DISPLAYED MORE THAN SUFFICIENT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY
/1700 J/KG MUCAPE/ WITH STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 50
KTS. IF/ONCE UPDRAFTS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...A LARGE HAIL THREAT
WILL LIKELY ENSUE WITH THE STRONGER CORES.

..SMITH.. 02/26/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...TOP...

LAT...LON 38049193 38479376 38929500 39349527 39949500 40499435
40699279 40309056 39868966 39098963 38598994 37999100
38049193

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