SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280248
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-280445-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0170
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0848 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AR/NRN MS/NWRN AL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 280248Z - 280445Z
ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA. WW MAY BE REQUIRED.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FROM
THE SERN QUARTER OF AR ENEWD ACROSS NRN MS INTO NRN AL...WITH ZONE
OF INCREASING QG FORCING N OF A W-E SURFACE BOUNDARY STILL SHIFTING
SWD ACROSS NRN LA/CENTRAL MS/SRN AL. AREA VWP/PROFILER DATA AND
EVENING RAOBS SUGGEST THAT STORMS ARE BASED INVOF 850 MB...WITHIN
ENVIRONMENT OF MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMICALLY...MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 50 KT ACROSS THIS
REGION IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR FOR
ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT A SLOW/STEADY
INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY -- AND AN ASSOCIATED INCREASE
IN HAIL POTENTIAL -- COULD WARRANT NEW WW ISSUANCE.
..GOSS.. 02/28/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...
LAT...LON 33329120 34059260 34539227 35009008 35048822 34688649
33688687 33818987 33329120
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