SWODY1
SPC AC 121229
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2009
VALID 121300Z - 131200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS THROUGH FRI...WITH
THE SRN STREAM EXTENDING FROM NRN BAJA CA ENE INTO THE LWR MS VLY
BEING THE BRANCH OF NOTE WITH RESPECT TO TSTM POTENTIAL. WITHIN
THIS FLOW...EXPECT MAIN IMPULSE NOW OVER SRN CA TO CONTINUE TO THE
AZ/NM BORDER BY 12Z FRI AS DOWNSTREAM DISTURBANCE NOW OVER TX
FURTHER WEAKENS AND SHEARS ENE TO THE MID ATLANTIC CST. AT THE
SFC...EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE COUNTRY.
...AZ/NM...
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS AZ AND WRN NM TODAY AS UPR
TROUGH APPROACHES REGION. INCREASING UVV AND DIURNAL
STEEPENING OF LOW LVL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD MODEST INSTABILITY...
SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF SCTD AFTN/EVE CONVECTION/STORMS. COLD AIR
ALOFT AND 8 C/KM LOW-MID LVL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SMALL HAIL COULD
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
...TX...
ELEVATED STORM CLUSTER NOW OVER S CNTRL TX SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH AS ASSOCIATED UPR IMPULSE FURTHER WEAKENS. ELEVATED STORMS
MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT OR...MORE
LIKELY...EARLY FRI ACROSS CNTRL AND S CNTRL TX AS UPLIFT STRENGTHENS
DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING UPR TROUGH. MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT HAIL POTENTIAL.
..CORFIDI/GARNER.. 03/12/2009
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