SWODY1
SPC AC 131247
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2009
VALID 131300Z - 141200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER AZ/NM THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN NM/FAR W TX THIS MORNING
EJECTS ENEWD TO N TX OVERNIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
PRECEDED BY WEAK SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE STALLED FRONT IN
THE NW GULF...AND THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS NEWD INTO SRN LA
THIS EVENING AND ERN MS/WRN AL BY 14/12Z. A SWATH OF LOW-LEVEL WAA
WILL ALSO DEVELOP EWD FROM SE TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEAR AND N
OF THE SURFACE WAVE TRACK. MEANWHILE...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S WILL SPREAD INLAND ACROSS S CENTRAL/SE LA IN THE
WARM SECTOR. THE INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WAA WILL SUPPORT
CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM CENTRAL/E TX INTO LA.
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF MID 60S DEWPOINTS...WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY
WILL BE WEAK /MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG/ AS A RESULT OF POOR MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. WARM SECTOR VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE RATHER WEAK
UNTIL A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL FLOW OCCURS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT WITH THE INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE WAVE. FORECAST
HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED STORMS WITH SOME
SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS...BUT THE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY AND MODEST
VERTICAL SHEAR DO NOT APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE
STORM THREAT.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FROM THE
MOGOLLON RIM INTO WRN NM...WHERE 7-8 C/KM LAPSE RATES WILL COINCIDE
WITH THE MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH.
..THOMPSON/GARNER.. 03/13/2009
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