Saturday, March 14, 2009

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 140545
SWODY1
SPC AC 140541

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2009

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A PERSISTENT
LOW AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW REGIME. SERIES OF IMPULSES WILL EJECT NEWD
INTO THE SERN STATES THROUGH BASE OF DE-AMPLIFYING SRN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH. WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG STALLED FRONT NEAR
THE CNTRL LA COAST WILL LIFT NEWD INTO MS/AL DURING THE DAY. THE
FRONT MAY LIFT A LITTLE FARTHER NWD ACROSS PARTS OF SRN MS AND AL.

...SERN STATES...

SWLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL RESULT IN FURTHER MOISTENING OF THE
WARM SECTOR FROM SRN MS INTO SRN AL SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY WITH
MUCAPE LIKELY REMAINING BELOW 500 J/KG. THE SURFACE WAVE AND SWLY
LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT NEWD THROUGH AL INTO THE TN VALLEY IN
RESPONSE TO EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING NEWD WITHIN BROAD ZONE OF
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TENDENCY WILL
BE FOR THE GREATER MASS FIELDS TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR
WITH TIME WHICH COMBINED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY LIMIT
OVERALL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THOUGH THE STRONGER FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE HIGHER
THETA-E AIR...HODOGRAPH SIZE AND BULK SHEAR IN WARM SECTOR WOULD
STILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS. AT THIS
TIME IT STILL APPEARS THE VERY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

...AZ AND NM...

ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ADVANCE THROUGH AZ AND
NM DURING THE DAY. MID LEVEL ASCENT AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL
ONCE AGAIN PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

..DIAL/SMITH.. 03/14/2009

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

No comments: