SWODY1
SPC AC 241936
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009
VALID 242000Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE FROM
PARTS OF E TX THRU THE LWR/MID MS VALLEY....
...PARTS OF E TX INTO THE LWR/MID MS VALLEY...
SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS STRONG ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
STATES...INCLUDING MUCH OF THE IMMEDIATE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF
COAST...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW-LEVEL DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO INHIBIT THE EASTWARD PROGRESS
OF THE ONGOING FRONTAL SQUALL LINE NOW SPREADING THROUGH THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT...AS A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
PIVOTS NORTH NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS MAY SUPPORT A NARROW AXIS OF
MOISTURE RETURN AND WEAK DESTABILIZATION ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI
INTO ILLINOIS. THIS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION OF
THE CONVECTIVE LINE IN THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE SOUTHERLY MEAN FLOW FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A 50-60 KT 850 MB
JET STREAK AND 90 KT 500 MB JET STREAK JUST EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS...DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LINE INTO
EARLY EVENING.
DESPITE BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF COAST...WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND LINGERING INHIBITION IN THE WAKE OF STRONGER MID/UPPER
FORCING ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS THE EXTENT OF THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...FRONTAL FORCING MAY REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN AT
LEAST A NARROW BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS AS IT ADVANCES SOUTHEASTWARD
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN THE PRESENCE OF 40-50
KT...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL...SOUTHWESTERLY MEAN FLOW NEAR THE
FRONT...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN ARKANSAS INTO THE
VICINITY OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH 25/00-02Z.
..KERR.. 03/24/2009
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