SWODY1
SPC AC 151616
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2009
VALID 151630Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...AL/FL/GA...
LATE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM TX ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SEVERAL
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW...HELPING TO
PRODUCE PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONE FEATURE
IS NOTED OVER TN/AL/MS AND IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR MOB INTO CENTRAL GA. BROKEN
CLOUDS AND A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR THE RISK OF A FEW STRONGER
UPDRAFTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ACTIVITY SPREADS TOWARD
SOUTHWEST GA. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ALSO INDICATE A RISK OF
SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUST. PLEASE REFER TO SWOMCD NUMBER 229 FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON
THIS AREA.
...TX...
FARTHER WEST...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
MIDDLE TX GULF COAST REGION. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK IMPULSE LIFTING OUT OF MEXICO AND ACROSS SOUTH TX.
ISOLATED AND HIGHLY-ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. RATHER STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MIGHT YIELD SMALL HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS...BUT
AN ORGANIZED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS NOT ANTICIPATED. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND LIFT EXTEND
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX...SO HAVE INCLUDED THIS AREA IN A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA AS WELL.
..HART/GARNER.. 03/15/2009
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