SWODY1
SPC AC 041916
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0116 PM CST WED MAR 04 2009
VALID 042000Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CA/ORE COASTS TO NRN HIGH PLAINS...
SURFACE LOW OVER ERN ID AS OF 18Z WILL DEVELOP EWD AND CONSOLIDATE
WITH DEEPENING LEE CYCLONE OVER ERN WY. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
CONCURRENTLY PROGRESS EWD THROUGH WRN/CNTRL UT AND MOST OF NV.
WHILE AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE DRY ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT...DAYTIME
HEATING COUPLED WITH RATHER COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES /AROUND 20 C
AT 500 MB/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. FRONTAL FORCING IN CONJUNCTION
WITH TERRAIN EFFECTS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO FOSTER ISOLATED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
FARTHER TO THE W...MIDLEVEL COLD POOL /-26 TO -32 C AT 500 MB/ ON
CYCLONIC SIDE OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL JETS IS LARGELY CONTRIBUTING TO
THE FORMATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES WITHIN POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS OVER
NRN/CNTRL CA. LATE MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IS ALREADY SHOWING
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM NEAR AND S OF SFO TO THE
SACRAMENTO AND SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS. FURTHER BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION SHOULD EVENTUALLY SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SAME GENERAL AREAS. A FEW OF THE
MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SOME SMALL HAIL. NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
..MEAD.. 03/04/2009
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