SWODY1
SPC AC 121602
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1102 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2009
VALID 121630Z - 131200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE SRN STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS DEEP MOIST CONVECTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER MUCH OF THE SWRN AND S-CENTRAL STATES...AS
COLD AND/OR STABLE AIR PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
NATION. LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EJECTING ACROSS ERN OK/ERN TX
WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE DEFINITION/AMPLITUDE AS IT ACCELERATES TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. MORNING SOUNDINGS AND MODEL FORECASTS
INDICATE MOIST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY WEAK AND LIKELY NOT PRODUCE LIGHTNING. A STRONGER SYSTEM
DIGGING ESEWD OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT
INTO NM OVERNIGHT. DESPITE MEAGER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM OVER PORTIONS OF AZ/WRN NM/FAR SWRN TX...STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE/COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND
THIS EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG OVER THIS
REGION AND...COMBINED WITH VERY COLD AIR ALOFT...MAY FOSTER HAIL
DEVELOPMENT WITH ANY STRONGER CORES THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO LIKELY INCREASE WITHIN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WAA
SPREADING ACROSS SWRN/CENTRAL TX LATER THIS EVENING/
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH OVERALL SEVERE THREAT STILL REMAINS LOW ATTM.
..EVANS/GRAMS.. 03/12/2009
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