SWODY1
SPC AC 191230
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0730 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2009
VALID 191300Z - 201200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND NRN
GULF STATES IN CONJUNCTION WITH GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION OF A NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY TONIGHT. THE WRN EXTENT OF THE FRONT WILL STALL
LATER TODAY/TONIGHT ACROSS TX AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING OCCURS ALOFT OVER
THE PLAINS...AND LEE CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES ACROSS THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS.
...OK/TX TODAY...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS /BASED NEAR 700 MB ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY/ HAVE BEEN ONGOING THIS MORNING FROM WRN AR INTO
CENTRAL OK. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THIS AREA
TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK WAA AND INSTABILITY ABOVE THE FRONTAL
SURFACE...AS WELL AS THE APPROACH OF A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING
SEWD FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP SWWD INTO CENTRAL TX AS SURFACE HEATING BOOSTS INSTABILITY
AND WEAKENS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE BIG
BEND WITH SURFACE HEATING AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
...CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON...
FARTHER E ALONG THE FRONT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE LEE OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER OVER THE CAROLINAS WHERE THE FRONT
PHASES WITH THE SRN PORTION OF THE AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL
TROUGH...WHEREAS ASCENT WILL BE WEAKER/SHALLOWER ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH /SW OF THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE/.
REGARDLESS...THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD BE
ISOLATED/SHORT-LIVED GIVEN ONLY A NARROW BAND OF MINIMAL INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON.
...SE FL TODAY...
A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EWD
OVER CENTRAL/S FL TODAY. A BELT OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ASCENT PRECEDING THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE KEYS AND SE FL THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY MID LEVEL DRYING AND WEAK
SUBSIDENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR
TODAY WITHIN THE BELT OF ASCENT AND NEARLY MOIST NEUTRAL
PROFILES...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT MORE CONCENTRATED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
..THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 03/19/2009
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