SWODY1
SPC AC 031618
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1018 AM CST TUE MAR 03 2009
VALID 031630Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
LARGE...COLD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OFF W COAST SENDING PERIODIC
IMPULSES INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL PAC COAST NEWD THRU NRN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION. ONE S/W CURRENTLY LIFTING NEWD THRU MT/NRN WY AND WEAKENING
INTO L/W RIDGE POSITION OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT. NEXT UPSTREAM
IMPULSE CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE NRN CA/OR AND AGAIN WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES ACROSS NRN INTERMOUNTAIN AREA BY THIS EVENING.
ALONG AND N OF THE VERY STRONG POLAR JET FROM THE SFO BAY AREA TO
SERN ID...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 7-8C/KM ARE IN PLACE
ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.
...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
IN WAKE OF S/W IMPULSE NOW MOVING AWAY FROM SRN ID...A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY REMAINS SUPPORTING
REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN EXPECTED AFTERNOON HEATING.
WHILE MLCAPES NO HIGHER THAN ABOUT 300 J/KG ARE LIKELY...THE
COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP/COLD LAPSE
RATES SUPPORT HAIL IN ANY STRONG UPDRAFT ABLE TO DEVELOP. HAVE
ADDED SOME LOW SEVERE HAIL PROBS VICINITY SNAKE RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN THESE EXPECTED CONDITIONS.
...NRN/CENTRAL CA INCLUDING SAC VALLEY...
REF MCD 192
IN THE WAKE OF CURRENT S/WV MOVING ACROSS NRN CA/OR... COLD MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW MARGINAL
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP WHERE AFTERNOON BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN
DEVELOP. DESPITE MUCAPE VALUES OF LESS THAN 300 J/KG...STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR AND LOW MELTING LEVELS WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF
ORGANIZED/LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL/WIND GUSTS AND/OR A
BRIEF TORNADO.
..HALES/GARNER.. 03/03/2009
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