SWODY1
SPC AC 230055
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2009
VALID 230100Z - 231200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY TRACKING EWD THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES BY 12Z
MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A PAIR OF LEAD MID LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE
NEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND NEWD ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MO VALLEY
TONIGHT. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING...WHILE CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS ACROSS SERN WY INTO NERN CO IN RESPONSE TO STRONG HEIGHT
FALLS /150-180 METERS AT H5/ EXPECTED OVER ERN CO LATE TONIGHT.
...FAR NERN CO/NEB PANHANDLE/WRN SD...
SSELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION ALONG ERN/NERN PERIPHERY OF
SERN WY/NERN CO CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALLOW DRY LINE TO RETREAT WWD
ACROSS WRN SD AND THE NEB PANHANDLE. MEANWHILE...TRENDS IN LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED STRONG DEEP
LAYER ASCENT SPREADING ENEWD ACROSS CO/WY/SRN MT PER RAPID
MOISTENING/CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVER THESE STATES. THIS ASCENT
SPREADING ACROSS LOW LEVEL MOISTENING AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS NEWD FROM SURFACE LOW THROUGH WRN NEB/WRN SD SHOULD
RESULT IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE CLOSE TO 50 F...AT BEST...STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT MUCAPE RANGING FROM 500-1000
J/KG...RESULTING IN A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL IN THE STRONGER STORMS.
...SRN PLAINS TO ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN...
STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MO
VALLEY WILL SUPPORT WAA FROM THESE AREAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. THE WAA COMBINED WITH ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE PAIR
OF LEAD MID LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH
EMBEDDED TSTMS OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH CLOUD LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KT
PER 00Z SOUNDING AT OMA WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION...
WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
STORMS.
..PETERS.. 03/23/2009
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