SWODY1
SPC AC 051620
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 AM CST THU MAR 05 2009
VALID 051630Z - 061200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A 125 KT 250 MB JET WAS POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT BASIN/SRN CA INTO
ERN WY AT 12Z...WHILE A NRN STREAM TROUGH CONTINUED TO DROP SOUTH
OUT OF SWRN CANADA AND INTO THE PAC NW. THE DIGGING TROUGH WILL
FORCE A WEAK CLOSED MID LVL LOW TO MIGRATE SOUTH ALONG THE CA
COAST...WHILE THE STRONG UPPER JET TRANSLATES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COLD MID LVL AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PAC NW TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN STATES...SUPPORTING ISOLATED
POCKETS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
A LOW AMPLITUDE MID LVL S/W TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG UPPER
JET IS FORECAST TO MOVE ENE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH A COLD
MID LEVEL AIRMASS /-20 TO -30 DEG C/ AND STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING PEAK
HEATING FROM SRN MT/NRN WY INTO WRN SD.
...CENTRAL CA COAST...
COLD MID LEVEL AIR /AROUND -30 DEG C/ WILL ACCOMPANY THE SOUTHWARD
MOVING UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF CA. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
NEAR 40 DEG F ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WHILE MID TO UPR 30S ARE MORE LIKELY FURTHER INLAND.
DESPITE THE MARGINAL MOISTURE...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /NEAR 8
C PER KM/ SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
OCCURRING IMMEDIATELY INLAND OF THE CENTRAL CA COAST.
..GARNER.. 03/05/2009
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