SWODY1
SPC AC 181617
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2009
VALID 181630Z - 191200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...MID MS VALLEY...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY DIGGING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
AFFECTING THE MID MS VALLEY BY EVENING AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
OCCUR AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH COOL MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL YIELD STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A
PLUME OF 50S DEWPOINTS EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF MO/IL IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 300-600 J/KG. ITS APPEARS THAT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER
CENTRAL/ERN MO THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL AND INTO IND DURING THE EVENING. A FEW OF THE
STRONGER CELLS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...
MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR PARAMETERS AND RATHER WEAK CAPE SUGGEST THAT
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN LOCALIZED AND DOES NOT WARRANT AN
UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK.
..HART/JEWELL.. 03/18/2009
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