SWODY2
SPC AC 131728
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2009
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY TRACKING EWD ACROSS AZ/
NM...SHOULD REACH N TX/OK BY 12Z SAT AND THEN PROCEED NEWD INTO THE
OH RIVER VALLEY DURING DAY 2. MEANWHILE...A LARGE SCALE UPPER
TROUGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E TOWARD THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ON SAT...WITH
A BAND OF STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS EXTENDING FROM S TX/LOWER MS VALLEY
TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT OK/N TX LEAD
IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NEWD FROM ERN MS/WRN AL TO ERN KY THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A TRAILING TROUGH SPREADING SLOWLY EWD
THROUGH CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.
...CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO SRN APPALACHIANS...
SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THIS
REGION...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S REACHING ERN AL/
SWRN GA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GENERALLY WEAK LAPSE RATES
WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY TO JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG. SHOWERS...
EMBEDDED TSTMS...WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE
SRN APPALACHIANS. LACK OF GREATER INSTABILITY SUGGESTS LITTLE
WIND/HAIL THREAT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT
ALONG THE GULF COAST...GIVEN LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN EXCESS OF 60 F
IN SOME AREAS AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. HOWEVER...STRONGER MASS FIELDS
SHIFTING AWAY FROM THIS REGION WITH THE LLJ NOSING INTO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AND WEAK UPPER FORCING SUGGESTS OVERALL TSTM COVERAGE
MAY BE SOMEWHAT LOW. THUS...WILL NOT INTRODUCE A LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITY.
...CENTRAL/ERN AZ...NM/SRN CO...
COLD AIR ALOFT /-22 C AT H5/ ATTENDANT TO UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SWRN
STATES COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL PROMOTE STEEP LAPSE
RATES...BUT MEAGER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL AGAIN RESULT IN WEAK
INSTABILITY. SHOWERS...AND EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS
REGIME.
..PAC NW...
CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE THIS PERIOD IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INLAND ACROSS WA/ORE. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDER
POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE.
..PETERS.. 03/13/2009
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