SWOD48
SPC AC 040959
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CST WED MAR 04 2009
VALID 071200Z - 121200Z
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE DAY 4 TO
8 PERIOD...MOVING AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES ON
SATURDAY/DAY 4 QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SUNDAY/DAY 5. SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE
SRN STATES AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SWD ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY AND
SRN PLAINS SUNDAY. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE SRN OZARKS. EVEN IF INSTABILITY
REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUNDAY SHOW STRONG
ENOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A
MID-LEVEL JET FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. DUE TO MODEL
CONSENSUS...WILL ADD A SEVERE THREAT AREA FROM CNTRL TX NEWD INTO
CNTRL AR FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE IN AGREEMENT DEVELOPING AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WEST MONDAY/DAY 6 WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SCNTRL STATES. THIS WOULD ENCOURAGE MOISTURE RETURN
INTO THE SRN PLAINS WITH INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ALONG THE MOIST AXIS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ALONG THIS
AXIS FROM SOUTH TX NWD INTO OK DURING THE DAY AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. IF THIS OCCURS...AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT WOULD
BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF VERTICAL SHEAR FORECAST BY THE
MODELS. HOWEVER...THE VARIANCE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE
STILL GREAT ENOUGH TO CAST UNCERTAINTY OVER MONDAYS POTENTIAL.
BEYOND MONDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CNTRL U.S. WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLE FROM THE SRN PLAINS NEWD INTO
THE MID-MS VALLEY. AT THIS RANGE...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH
CONCERNING THE WEATHER PATTERN AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL
BE IN PLACE.
..BROYLES.. 03/04/2009
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