SWOD48
SPC AC 190858
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2009
VALID 221200Z - 271200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A SEVERE EVENT REMAINS APPARENT FOR MON. MAR. 23 /DAY 5/...WITH
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS CONTINUING TO FORECAST A MID-LEVEL LOW SHIFTING
EWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WITH A FAIRLY BROAD/RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF A SURFACE CYCLONE LIKELY CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...SETUP APPEARS TO
FAVOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
WHILE SOMEWHAT MERIDIONAL -- PARTICULARLY OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WIND FIELD WILL BE PLENTY STRONG TO SUPPORT
SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS -- AND THUS ATTM IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT
A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT IS LIKELY.
BEYOND DAY 5 -- AND PARTICULARLY BEYOND DAY 6...MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE IN POSITION OF THE MAIN FEATURES...WHICH CASTS UNCERTAINTY
INTO THE SEVERE FORECAST. HOWEVER...EVEN GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WOULD
OCCUR DAY 5...WITH DECREASING POTENTIAL FARTHER E INTO THE MID MO
VALLEY REGION FOR DAY 6.
..GOSS.. 03/19/2009
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