SWOD48
SPC AC 220827
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0327 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2009
VALID 251200Z - 301200Z
...DISCUSSION...
LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE ECMWF...GFS AND UKMET /THROUGH 144
HR/ ARE ALL IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. D4 /WED MAR 25TH/
AND D5 /THU MAR 26TH/ APPEAR TO BE TRANSITION DAYS AS INITIAL
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WEAKENS WHILE LIFTING NEWD FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO MEAN RIDGE IN PLACE OVER ERN CANADA. TSTMS /SOME
SEVERE/ WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN A MOIST...PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS ALONG
THE GULF COAST. HOWEVER...AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
BY D6 /FRI MAR 27TH/ THESE DATA INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
POWERFUL MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE S-CNTRL CONUS WHICH SUBSEQUENTLY
INTENSIFIES WHILE BECOMING NEGATIVELY-TILTED OVER THE ERN HALF OF
THE NATION FROM D7 /SAT MAR 28TH/ INTO D8 /SUN MAR 29TH/. SHOULD
THIS SCENARIO UNFOLD...THE POTENTIAL WOULD EXIST FOR A SERIES OF
SEVERE WEATHER EPISODES FROM THE S-CNTRL U.S. TO THE ATLANTIC COAST
FROM D6-D8. HOWEVER...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT RUN-TO-RUN MODEL
CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN POOR...DUE IN PART TO THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG
UPSTREAM JET OVER THE N-CNTRL INTO NERN PACIFIC OCEAN. AS A RESULT
OF THIS UNCERTAINTY...NO SEVERE WEATHER AREAS WILL BE DELINEATED
ATTM.
..MEAD.. 03/22/2009
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