SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222210
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-222315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0235
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0510 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/WRN ND AND EXTREME NWRN SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 222210Z - 222315Z
NEAR SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS POSING A THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE OVER
SWRN/WRN ND AND EXTREME NWRN SD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS
STORMS MOVE NE...THEY SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED RESULTING
IN REDUCED STORM INTENSITY.
SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 20Z PLACES A 993 MB LOW OVER SERN
MT...WITH SEVERAL COLD FRONTS EXTENDING W AND SW OF THE LOW...A
QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EWD ACROSS THE ND/SD BORDER...AND
A TROUGH AXIS NORTH ALONG THE MT/ND BORDER. PRONOUNCED AXIS OF STEEP
0-3 KM LAPSE RATES EXTENDS NWD ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS...WHERE STRONG
DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING...FAVORING SURFACE/NEAR SURFACE BASED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MODIFYING RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FOR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPR 60S/DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 40S YIELDS
UP TO 300 J/KG OF MLCAPE. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER GOLDEN
VALLEY AND BILLINGS COUNTIES IN WRN ND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT
/AOA 8 C PER KM/ AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AOA 40 KT. DAMAGING WINDS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
AIRMASS. IN ADDITION...A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC VERTICAL VORTICITY AND
THE PRESENCE OF 50-100 J/KG OF 0-3 KM CAPE /PER RUC SFCOA FIELDS/.
NEWD STORM MOTION IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TAKE STORMS DEVELOPING OVER
WRN ND INTO AN INCREASINGLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT...FAVORING MORE
ELEVATED NATURE. LATEST VIS IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES TOWERING CU ARE
ATTEMPTING TO BACK BUILD INTO NWRN SD. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENT IS LESS
UNSTABLE FARTHER SOUTH...WHICH MAY PRECLUDE INITIATION. GIVEN THE
BRIEF RESIDENCE TIME WITHIN NARROW WEDGE OF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY...A WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
..GARNER.. 03/22/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...GGW...
LAT...LON 47910395 47890389 47420334 46410267 45720273 45510315
45530374 45640396 46250381 46850388 47490405 47910395
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment