Monday, March 23, 2009

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0240

ACUS11 KWNS 231740
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231739
KSZ000-OKZ000-231915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0240
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL KS INTO NRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 231739Z - 231915Z

INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN A N-S BAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
THIRD OF KS AND INTO NWRN OK WILL REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE SOON.

A SHARPENING DRYLINE IS BULGING NEWD ACROSS WRN KS AND THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES ATTM...AS HEATING CONTINUES W OF THE LOW CLOUD BAND OVER
THE ERN HALF OF KS/CENTRAL AND ERN OK. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S AND TEMPERATURES NOW INTO THE LOW 70S HAS RESULTED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ROUGHLY 500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE...WHICH IS
SUPPORTING TCU/SMALL CB DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE.

AS AIRMASS FURTHER DESTABILIZES SUPPORTING CONTINUED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...EXISTING SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THIS REGION --
DEPICTING FLOW INCREASING/VEERING WITH HEIGHT -- WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS. WHILE MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE SUGGESTS
RELATIVELY HIGH CLOUD BASES...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..GOSS.. 03/23/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON 38999643 37809657 36399726 35609874 38749862 39919903
39989653 38999643

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