SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241933
MOZ000-ARZ000-242100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0251
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...AR/SERN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 241933Z - 242100Z
LIMITED/SLOW INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS AR AND VICINITY.
LIMITED BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING/HEATING HAS OCCURRED ACROSS AR
THIS AFTERNOON -- WHICH COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOW PIVOTING ENEWD ACROSS ERN KS/ERN OK HAS
RESULTED IN MODEST DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE BAND. THIS HAS ALLOWED A SLOW INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY ACROSS NWRN AR PER LATEST RADAR LOOP...AND SOME
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS MOVE INTO CENTRAL
AR.
WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW EVIDENT AS THE UPPER FEATURE AND
ASSOCIATED JET STREAK SKIRT THIS REGION...SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE
FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS. OVERALL...EXPECT THE
SLOWLY-ORGANIZING LINE OF STORMS TO BECOME MORE COMPLEX OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS -- INCLUDING EMBEDDED LEWP/BOW STRUCTURES.
ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS MAY
BECOME SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.
..GOSS.. 03/24/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...
LAT...LON 33809167 33939343 34449403 34959333 35979277 37119139
36908934 34269103 33809167
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