SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251751
TXZ000-251945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0259
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY REGION EWD INTO
SOUTHEAST TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 251751Z - 251945Z
SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU/MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY REGION EWD INTO SERN TX
THIS AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.
THE SURFACE FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE STALLED -- OR EVEN BEGUN A SLOW
RETREAT -- ACROSS S TX PER LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS...WITH DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY INTO THE UPPER 60S AND TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID
70S INVOF THE FRONT. A MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING
INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS FROM THE SRN ROCKIES...AND A SECOND/SUBTLE
SUBTROPICAL FEATURE NOW NEARING THE BIG BEND APPEARS TO BE PHASING
WITH THE MORE NRN FEATURE. IN RESPONSE...A SLOW INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL SLYS -- AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION/ASCENT -- WILL
CONTINUE DOWNSTREAM THIS AFTERNOON INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX.
VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME EROSION IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
OVER S TX AND INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION...WHICH COMBINED WITH
A SLOW NWD-SHIFT IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
DESTABILIZATION -- EVENTUALLY SUPPORTING STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE
MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE FROM
THE DRT TO SJT REGION -- WHERE CU FIELD IS INCREASING JUST AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.
WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ALREADY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...A CONTINUED
INCREASE IN THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW FIELD WILL BE
INCREASINGLY-SUPPORTIVE OF LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. WHILE MUCH OF THE
STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND WHILE FORECAST ENELY STORM MOTION SHOULD CARRY ANY
STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE FRONT/ATOP THE
SHALLOW COOL SURFACE AIRMASS...WARMING/MOISTENING WITH TIME N OF THE
FRONT SUGGESTS THAT SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD PERSIST N OF THE
FRONT DESPITE THE SLIGHTLY-ELEVATED NATURE OF ANY STORMS RESIDING
JUST N OF THE BOUNDARY.
ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO INVOF THIS BOUNDARY TO WARRANT TORNADO
WATCH ISSUANCE.
..GOSS.. 03/25/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 29680164 30260157 30600029 30779869 30779746 31549525
30629460 29529447 28769825 28690004 29680164
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