SWODY1
SPC AC 150054
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2009
VALID 150100Z - 151200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...COASTAL CAROLINAS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THE ERN
CAROLINAS...WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEEN STABILIZED BY PRIOR
CONVECTION. STILL...MODEST/SLIGHTLY-ELEVATED INSTABILITY -- PER
EVENING MHX /MOREHEAD CITY NC/ RAOB -- LINGERS AHEAD OF THE WEAK
SURFACE WAVE/FRONT CROSSING THIS REGION. WITH 50 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A STRONGER CELL OR TWO...WILL MAINTAIN 5% HAIL
PROBABILITY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BEFORE THE COMBINATION OF
DIURNAL STABILIZATION AND THE FRONT MOVING SLOWLY OFFSHORE LEADS TO
A CESSATION IN ANY LINGERING POTENTIAL.
...FAR SRN FL/THE KEYS...
LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL LINGERS ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF S FL AND
THE KEYS...WITH SWD-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FORECAST TO VACATE THE
SRN TIP OF THE FL PENINSULA IN THE NEXT HALF HOUR. CLUSTER OF
STORMS MOVING SEWD TOWARD THE SWRN FL COAST/THE KEYS WILL MOVE
ONSHORE N OF THE OUTFLOW -- AND THUS REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED.
NONETHELESS...GIVEN SOME DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION OBSERVED WITHIN THIS
APPROACHING OFFSHORE CLUSTER...AND AMPLY-UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PER
EVENING EYW /KEY WEST/ AND MFL /MIAMI/ RAOBS...WILL MAINTAIN LOW
PROBABILITY SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS A SMALL PART OF S FL AND THE
KEYS.
..GOSS.. 04/15/2009
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