Wednesday, April 15, 2009

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 160036
SWODY1
SPC AC 160033

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 PM CDT WED APR 15 2009

VALID 160100Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

SCATTERED HIGH BASED STORMS THAT DEVELOPED WITHIN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MIXING ALONG LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE PERSIST FROM SERN
WY...WRN NEB INTO NERN CO. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL THROUGH ABOUT MID
EVENING. HOWEVER...OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE FOR INTENSITIES TO BEGIN
DECREASING BY 02-03Z AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION INCREASES FOR SURFACE BASED PARCELS. ZONE OF DEEPER LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH NWD EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STEEP 700-500 MB
LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED STORMS CONTINUING INTO THE
LATE EVENING.

...S PLAINS...

VORT MAX NOW MOVING THROUGH NRN MEXICO WILL LIKELY REACH THE TX S
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT WHEN INCREASING ASCENT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
DEVELOPMENT OF MID LEVEL/ELEVATED CONVECTION WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES
EXIST ABOVE THE CAPPING INVERSION.

..DIAL.. 04/16/2009

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