SWODY1
SPC AC 161632
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CDT THU APR 16 2009
VALID 161630Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER
UT/AZ...WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE
RESULTED IN SOME MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. 50S DEWPOINTS ARE NOW EVIDENT AS FAR
NORTH AS THE TX PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL OK...AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD
INTO WESTERN KS BY THIS EVENING. A RATHER STRONG DRYLINE IS LIKELY
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHEAST CO INTO WEST TX...WHICH
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER
TODAY.
...NEB/KS/OK EARLY AFTERNOON...
A NARROW CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED THIS
MORNING FROM WESTERN NORTH TX INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST KS/SOUTHEAST
NEB. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN REGION OF LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
AND LIFT...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT MUCAPE. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE
HAIL THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE ACTIVITY IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. REFER TO SWOMCD NUMBER 481 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
...EASTERN CO THIS AFTERNOON...
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS EASTERN CO ARE HELPING TO
SLOWLY ADVECT MOISTURE INTO REGION. PRIMARY DRYLINE WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP OVER FAR EASTERN CO...BUT BACKED WINDS NEAR SURFACE LOW MAY
WRAP SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS WESTWARD AND CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING AND COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A RISK OF HAIL IN STRONGER
CELLS. BY LATE AFTERNOON...MORE INTENSE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
NEAR THE DRYLINE WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO. THREAT SHOULD SPREAD INTO WESTERN KS DURING THE
EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER DARK.
...OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO SOUTHWEST TX...
STRONG HEATING OVER EASTERN NM AND WEST TX WILL HELP INTENSIFY THE
DRYLINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS. MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT OF STORMS BY 00Z FROM SOUTHEAST CO TO SOUTH OF AMA...WITH
DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWARD ALONG DRYLINE DURING THE EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS ENTIRE AXIS WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. THOSE STORMS THAT CAN REMAIN DISCRETE MAY ALSO
POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE
UPSCALE INTO A LINEAR MCS BY 06Z AND PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE HILL COUNTRY.
..HART/GARNER.. 04/16/2009
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