SWODY3
SPC AC 070722
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 AM CDT TUE APR 07 2009
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE SRN
PLNS...OZARKS AND MID-SOUTH...
...SYNOPSIS...
A LEAD UPR TROUGH MOVING INTO THE INTERIOR WEST ON WEDNESDAY WILL
TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS AND LWR OH VLY THURSDAY.
KICKER SYSTEM WILL BE THE NEXT AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL
CLOSE INTO A LOW AND DROP SWD ALONG THE CA CST DURING THE DAY 3 PD.
AT THE SFC...LEE-LOW WILL DEEPEN THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE SRN HIGH
PLNS...THEN DEVELOP EWD ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER BY 00Z FRI...THEN TO
NEAR KSTL BY 12Z FRI. A DRYLINE WILL MIX QUICKLY EWD INTO CNTRL
OK/ERN TX THURSDAY AFTN BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY A SEWD MOVING
CDFNT THURSDAY NIGHT.
...SRN PLNS TO THE MID-SOUTH...
RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE STEADILY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE APCHG UPR SYSTEM. MODIFIED GLFMEX MOISTURE...CHARACTERIZED
BY SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S...WILL ADVECT THROUGH
ERN MEXICO...THEN ARC NEWD ACROSS CNTRL/ERN TX...ERN OK...AND THE
OZARKS BY THURSDAY EVE. THIS DEEPENING MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
INITIALLY BE CAPPED AS A STRONG EML STREAMS EWD BENEATH THE UPR LOW.
HOWEVER...90+ METER HEIGHT FALLS AND ABRUPT COOLING ALOFT WILL TEND
TO WEAKEN THE CAP BY LATE AFTN AND EXPECT TSTMS WILL ERUPT ALONG THE
DRYLINE/TRIPLE POINT REGION FROM SCNTRL KS SWD INTO ERN TX.
MAGNITUDE OF LAPSE RATES/MODEST INSTABILITY AND 60-70 KTS WLY H5
FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DMGG
WINDS AND PERHAPS TORNADOES. SVR THREATS WILL LIKELY EXTEND
DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE MID-SOUTH/OZARKS OVERNIGHT AS THE 50 KT SWLY
LLJ QUICKLY SHIFTS EWD TO ALONG THE LWR MS VLY.
..RACY.. 04/07/2009
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment